Behind Beijing's mask of indifference towards Hillary Clinton's election run

Want China Times, Staff Reporter 2015-04-17

Hillary Clinton attends a news conference in Beijing, China, on Friday,
May 4, 2012.(Photo/CFP)

Almost three years ago, when Xi Jinping had just been installed as Chinese president and Barack Obama had begun his second term in office as US president, then state councilor and secretary-general of the Foreign Affairs Leading Group Dai Bingguo asked then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton if she would run for the presidential office in 2016.

At the time Beijing's discontent over the US taking in Chinese civil rights activist Chen Guangcheng had created a barrier to Sino-US strategic and economic talks.

The question from Dai was likely an attempt to lighten the atmosphere at a tense time for relations. Clinton stated flatly that she would not run and she confirmed this the following day in an interview with a US journalist. Clinton stated that nothing would make her want to run, although she was flattered to hear this talked about in Chinese circles.

This is likely the first time that a high-ranking official had asked Clinton about her intentions to have another run at the presidential office since she dropped out of the 2008 Democratic primaries.

At the time Dai asked the question, Clinton was far ahead of Obama in opinion polls and had set a record for the amount of official visits she had made all over the globe. She had earned a reputation for protecting US interests in her time in office. From this point onward Clinton's plan for a presidential run in 2016 was something of an open secret.

On April 12, 2015, Clinton announced that she was running in the 2016 election in a campaign ad and in May, she will hold an election rally. China appeared disinterested in Clinton's announcement. Hong Lei, the spokesperson of China's foreign ministry responded to a question on the issue during a regular press briefing, stating that the US presidential election is an internal issue for the US and that maintaining the healthy development of ties between China and the US is in the interests of the people of both countries and will help to maintain peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia Pacific region and in the wider world. He added that China is willing to work with the US to continue the progress in building "new major country relations."

Hong made these comments only after he was asked at the press conference and China likely felt no obligation to respond to the announcement directly. Hong's comments are typical of responses of this kind in the past by Communist Party officials, but in the context of Clinton's announcement they reveal certain things about China's view of the upcoming presidential election.

First of all, Hong reiterates China's policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries by stating that the US presidential election is an internal US issue. In the last two US presidential elections and the two mid-terms that have occurred over the last eight years, US politicians have often resorted to playing up the "China threat." This has become an integral part of electoral politics in the US since China became the world's second largest economy. It is likely that the 2016 election will become a competition to see who can play up their anti-China rhetoric the most. Given China and the US have overlapping economic, political, military and diplomatic interests and China's bold moves on various fronts, it's inevitable that China will become the whipping boy of the next US election.

There is a mixed bag of 20 candidates for the Republican primaries, a lot more than the 12 in 2012, with some relatively unknown contenders alongside household names. Among them are some more extreme social conservatives, including several candidates popular with the Tea Party. Even though there are reasonable contenders in the Democrats' camp, they will likely be forced to play the China card in debates with Republicans. This kind of rhetoric is often employed when the polls are tight, so China is likely limiting itself to warning US politicians to be cautious of going too far in this direction. When the election is won, the victor will transition from election mode to White House mode and will have to make sure ties with China proceed smoothly.

When Clinton was secretary of state, she led the US "rebalance" towards the Asia Pacific region. In this role she was seen by Beijing as provoking tension between China and its neighbors in the region, as well as criticizing China for human rights abuses and for the one-party state system. For China, Clinton is a symbol of Sino-US tensions in the Asia Pacific region. However, compared to many Republican candidates, who make brief visits to the Asia Pacific region and the Middle East once a year, Clinton has made more contacts in the region and is well-versed in regional affairs. She is also well-known for her unique approach to diplomatic affairs.

Clinton's lead has driven Obama to declare himself a "Pacific president," and the 21st Century the "Pacific Century." This strategy is likely to continue should Clinton be elected president, given China's strategic deployments in the region. Clinton's hard-line approach will likely make her a strong Pacific president if elected. It may also mean that the Pacific cannot remain as peaceful as its name suggests. Hong's comments specifically addressed the situation in the Pacific, calling for peace, stability and prosperity in the region. This is clearly a call for whoever is elected to work with China to continue to improve relations with an eye to the long term stability of the region.

The announcement of "new major state relations," agreed at the 2013 leaders' summit between China and the US came after Clinton had already left office as secretary of state. She was neither the author of nor a participant in the forming of this relationship and she does not seem to be a current supporter of it. When Xi proposed the idea on a visit to the US in February 2012, Clinton's response was reported to be stony. In June of 2014, while promoting her new book, Clinton rejected the idea of new major state relations, saying, that if the idea suggests that the US and China should lead the world in resolving every issue then her answer would be "No." Asked for her opinion on rumors of Sino-US "G2" talks, Clinton said that she didn't believe the rumors and that the idea was inappropriate.

The Obama administration is largely positive on the consensus reached on major state relations with China. From their perspective, it at least avoids confrontation between the US as an established power and China as an emerging power. However, the Obama administration fails to grasp why Xi continues to emphasize the idea of the US "respecting China's core interests." The US is also unwilling to clarify their interpretation of major state relations out of concern for the effect on its allies, such as Japan. Major state relations with China will be a task that the next president will have to tackle with care. If a Republican takes office, there may be a possibility of continuing the consensus, but given the Republican Party's lack of flexibility, the chances are quite slim.

Although Clinton rejected the idea of major state relations during her tenure as secretary of state, there is a high probability she will turn around on the issue if elected, given the amount of work Obama has put in to it. This will depend, however, on whether or not Clinton has her own suggestions for the future of Sino-US relations.

Clinton during the election and Clinton in the White House will likely be very different in character. What is certain is that Clinton is power hungry. When she was secretary of state Beijing saw her as attempting to rally ASEAN countries against China and she has continued to push the internationalization of the South China Sea territorial issue after stepping down. When she is elected, she will likely take a leaf out of Xi's book and consolidate the power of the presidential office, especially in terms of foreign diplomacy, to exert US dominance in the Asia Pacific region.

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