Cempaka Global Hotspots: Analysts speculate Israeli-Iranian war scenario in wake of Iran defense maneuver

"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) - (Text version)

"The Timing of the Great Shift" – Mar 21, 2009 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Text version)

“ … Here is another one. A change in what Human nature will allow for government. "Careful, Kryon, don't talk about politics. You'll get in trouble." I won't get in trouble. I'm going to tell you to watch for leadership that cares about you. "You mean politics is going to change?" It already has. It's beginning. Watch for it. You're going to see a total phase-out of old energy dictatorships eventually. The potential is that you're going to see that before 2013. They're going to fall over, you know, because the energy of the population will not sustain an old energy leader ..."

"Update on Current Events" – Jul 23, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: The Humanization of God, Gaia, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Benevolent Design, Financial Institutes (Recession, System to Change ...), Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Nuclear Power Revealed, Geothermal Power, Hydro Power, Drinking Water from Seawater, No need for Oil as Much, Middle East in Peace, Persia/Iran Uprising, Muhammad, Israel, DNA, Two Dictators to fall soon, Africa, China, (Old) Souls, Species to go, Whales to Humans, Global Unity,..... etc.)

The Declaration of Human Freedom

Archangel Michael (Via Steve Beckow), Feb. 19, 2011

Every being is a divine and eternal soul living in a temporal body. Every being was alive before birth and will live after death.

Every soul enters into physical life for the purpose of experience and education, that it may, in the course of many lifetimes, learn its true identity as a fragment of the Divine.

Life itself is a constant process of spiritual evolution and unfoldment, based on free choice, that continues until such time as we realize our true nature and return to the Divine from which we came.

No soul enters life to serve another, except by choice, but to serve its own purpose and that of the Divine from which it came.

All life is governed by natural and universal laws which precede and outweigh the laws of humanity. These laws, such as the law of karma, the law of attraction, and the law of free will, are decreed by God to order existence and assist each person to achieve life’s purpose.

No government can or should survive that derives its existence from the enforced submission of its people or that denies its people their basic rights and freedoms.

Life is a movement from one existence to another, in varied venues throughout the universe and in other universes and dimensions of existence. We are not alone in the universe but share it with other civilizations, most of them peace-loving, many of whom are more advanced than we are, some of whom can be seen with our eyes and some of whom cannot.

The evidence of our five senses is not the final arbiter of existence. Humans are spiritual as well as physical entities and the spiritual side of life transcends the physical. God is a Spirit and the final touchstone of God’s Truth is not physical but spiritual. The Truth is to be found within.

God is one and, because of this, souls are one. They form a unity. They are meant to live in peace and harmony together in a “common unity” or community. The use of force to settle affairs runs contrary to natural law. Every person should have the right to conduct his or her own affairs without force, as long as his or her choices do not harm another.

No person shall be forced into marriage against his or her will. No woman shall be forced to bear or not bear children, against her will. No person shall be forced to hold or not hold views or worship in a manner contrary to his or her choice. Nothing vital to existence shall be withheld from another if it is within the community’s power to give.

Every person shall retain the ability to think, speak, and act as they choose, as long as they not harm another. Every person has the right to choose, study and practice the education and career of their choice without interference, provided they not harm another.

No one has the right to kill another. No one has the right to steal from another. No one has the right to force himself or herself upon another in any way.

Any government that harms its citizens, deprives them of their property or rights without their consent, or makes offensive war upon its neighbors, no matter how it misrepresents the situation, has lost its legitimacy. No government may govern without the consent of its people. All governments are tasked with seeing to the wellbeing of their citizens. Any government which forces its citizens to see to its own wellbeing without attending to theirs has lost its legitimacy.

Men and women are meant to live fulfilling lives, free of want, wherever they wish and under the conditions they desire, providing their choices do not harm another and are humanly attainable.

Children are meant to live lives under the beneficent protection of all, free of exploitation, with unhindered access to the necessities of life, education, and health care.

All forms of exploitation, oppression, and persecution run counter to universal and natural law. All disagreements are meant to be resolved amicably.

Any human law that runs counter to natural and universal law is invalid and should not survive. The enactment or enforcement of human law that runs counter to natural and universal law brings consequences that cannot be escaped, in this life or another. While one may escape temporal justice, one does not escape divine justice.

All outcomes are to the greater glory of God and to God do we look for the fulfillment of our needs and for love, peace, and wisdom. So let it be. Aum/Amen.

"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

“… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …”

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Analysts speculate Israeli-Iranian war scenario in wake of Iran defense maneuver

www.chinaview.cn, David Harris, 2009-11-24 04:30:29

Clergymen watched a missile during war games Thursday near Qum, Iran. The exercise was conducted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. (NYT, Fars News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images)

JERUSALEM, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- Iran's military is staging five days of exercises this week in an attempt to test its defenses, particularly around its nuclear installations. Amongst other issues, it is trying to establish, in the eyes of analysts, whether it could survive any strike by Israel.

Israel and the United States have consistently refused to rule out the possibility of military strikes against Iran over its refusal to halt its nuclear program. While Iran has said on numerous occasions that if it is attacked by Israel or the United States it will destroy the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.

These bring suppositions being made about how the two sides would act in the event of warfare.

DEFINING THE SCENARIO

The war game will cover about 600,000 square kilometers of central, western and southern parts of Iran, Iran's state television reported, adding that both the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iran's regular armed forces will participate in the exercises dubbed "Asemane Velayat 2."

Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, head of the air-defense headquarters of Iran's armed forces, said Saturday that the maneuver is aimed at developing the country's aerial defense against any potential attacks -- especially on the country's nuclear plants.

During the practice "we will experience an authentic war situation and we will harness all our defensive facilities and the systems for an electronic war," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted IRGC's air force commander Amir-Ali Hajizadeh as saying, where he mentioned the possible offensive on Iran by Israel.

However, what follows is pure speculation, with the analysts stressing that their guesswork is based on what information is currently available on the Israeli and Iranian militaries.

The analysts who spoke with Xinhua do not suggest the Iranians would launch a pre-emptive strike, but rather assume that if there were to be military action it would be an Israeli attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities.

The war scenario as it unfolds below is the combination of the thoughts of Francis Tusa, the editor of the London-based newsletter Defense Analysis and Barbara Opall-Rome, the Israel bureau chief for Defense News.

ISRAEL STRIKES

An Israeli attack on Iran would be led by the Israel Air Force, with backing from the Israel Navy and potentially with additional fire power supplied by ground-based intermediate-range ballistic missiles, according to analysts.

The target bank is constantly being updated by Israel's military intelligence staff and the military believes it is very much on top of its game, as opposed to its 2006 war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where there were clear disagreements between the soldiers and the politicians as to the best way to fight against the enemy.

"The Israel Defense Forces is very confident that if called by the political leadership to respond militarily they could do so," said Opall-Rome.

The working assumption is that Israel would have to hit multiple targets, presumably at roughly the same time. The sites, that would have to be taken out, number anywhere from six, according to Tusa, up to two dozen in Opall-Rome's estimate.

In terms of aircraft required, for every one strike fighter jet at least two more, or even three, would be needed to deal with Iranian military defenses, including aircraft, missiles, radar, ground forces and military headquarters.

Even then, Tusa does not believe Israel would have sufficient strike power. In his opinion, Israel could not commit all of its aircraft to Iran, and it would have to retain some at home in the event that Hezbollah to the north, Hamas to the south and even Syria to the northeast were to attack Israel in retaliation to its strikes against Iran.

Tusa also wonders whether Israel lacks the refueling aircraft necessary for such a mission. One solution would be for aircraft to take with them larger long-range supplies of fuel, but that would mean a reduction in the size of their attack payload. Another factor to be taken on board is whether Israel would be granted permission to fly over Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states, to dramatically reduce the flight time required to reach Iran and return home.

Given that Israel's airpower may be insufficient, it would therefore also have to rely, for example, on cruise missiles fired from the sea. It has been reported that Israeli submarines have been investigating waters close to Iran. These missiles would most likely not be used to hit underground nuclear facilities but rather to destroy Iranian ground defenses.

Israel could also consider deploying ground forces but they would have to be in situ for several weeks, if not months, beforehand to prepare for any strike, said Opall-Rome.

Another option available to Israel is its own nuclear arsenal, something it will not confirm exists, but whose existence is internationally agreed. Tusa thinks it highly unlikely Israel would use nuclear weapons in an initial strike.

What Israel would have to be certain of is its ability not to damage Iran's nuclear capabilities but to destroy them. Merely taking down power lines, for instance, would achieve little.

IRAN BEFORE AND AFTER S-300s

Iran has been preparing for Israeli or other foreign attacks for some time now and, according to Tusa, has been talking with other states that have been attacked by the West about their experiences.

Iran's most obvious response to any airborne attack, including missiles fired from sea, would be with aircraft and missiles.

It is assumed that Iran's air force pilots are not in the same league as their Israeli counterparts. "I think you'll have the Israel Air Force pilots queuing up to be the guys to do the air-superiority role because they would end up being combat aces in the first three minutes," said Tusa.

If Iran has done its preparation work properly it will also adopt deception techniques, analysts suggest. One example would be by creating dummy nuclear sites with lots of activity that would be picked up by Israeli radar. It would require the installation of large blast doors in a hillside and trucks arriving and departing from the site. Israeli aircraft would then waste their weaponry attacking such non-existent facilities.

Israel remains confident of its capabilities as the military balance stands today. However it is concerned that the potential delivery of Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missiles could make the guarantee of success that bit smaller. The S-300s are used to defend against aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles.

"They make Patriots look pretty old fashioned. The radars are incredibly powerful and agile. They are very difficult to jam and once there's engagement you are talking about simultaneously guided surface-to-air missiles," said Tusa.

However, for the time being Iran has not taken receipt of the S-300s. As it stands, the analysts believe the question of the success of an Israeli attack depends more on Israel's capabilities than Iran's defenses.

There is one additional factor though. Iran could call on its regional allies, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel at home. While their combined prowess would not normally be much of a challenge to Israel, if its focus was entirely on Iran, it could suffer serious damage before coming to terms with the new front, analysts suggest.

While Opall-Rome does not believe Iran could successfully thwart an Israeli attack, she does see psychological warfare coming into play. If the Iranians were to down a single Israeli plane, even an unmanned drone, or capture just one Israeli pilot and display, that would be a "devastating blow" to Israeli moral and public opinion.

All of this guesswork is trying to extrapolate what might happen if Israel decided to attack Iran. However, as war planners are sitting in bunkers in Tel Aviv, Tehran and elsewhere doing precisely the same thing, Opall-Rome believes both Israel and Iran are very wrong to be conducting highly-publicized military exercises.

"This is just more of the psychological operation that both sides are irresponsibly waging to deflect serious attention from the type of negotiations that need to be done, it's getting out of control," she said.

Tusa does not believe it is beyond the realms of possibility that Israel will attack Iran, especially if Israel feels its back is against the wall in the international arena.

Israel fears that when Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks of wiping Israel off the world map he is not joking. When he adds messianic messages in to mix it only increases the concern amongst Israel's decision-makers that Iran has or will very soon have nuclear weapons, said Tusa.

Israel, the United States and some other countries have accused Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons under the cover of a civilian nuclear program. Iran has denied the charges and insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

Editor: Mu Xuequan

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Analysts speculate Israeli-Iranian war scenario in wake of Iran defense maneuver

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